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Jun-25 Outlook

June ETF Outlook — 5 Data‑Backed Picks for the Month Ahead

TrendWell Digest’s model flags IJT, QQQ, DGT, XLK, and IJK as the most promising ETFs for the coming month. When these same signals have lined up over the past 24 years (data back to October 2000), the group produced an average historical annualized return of 19 %, versus markedly lower results when the signals were weaker.

May ended with U.S. equities advancing despite renewed tariff chatter, sticky-but‑easing core inflation, and a Federal Reserve that reiterated its patient stance on rate cuts. At the same time, a surprise rebound in global PMIs and continued leadership from mega‑cap tech bolstered risk appetite. Those themes—volatility compression, selective sector strength, and a steeper yield curve—mirror the drivers behind this month’s picks.

IJT | iShares S&P Small‑Cap 600 Growth ETF

Tracks: U.S. small‑cap growth stocks.

  • XLB RSI (14‑month) at 116 % of norm (RSIVol‑XLB) → indicates materials sector overextension. IJT returned 29 % historically when XLB was this overbought, versus 6 % when it wasn’t.
  • XLE 12‑month price change −13 % (T12MM‑XLE) → energy weakness often precedes small‑cap rotation; IJT gained 15 % vs. 8 % otherwise.
  • DIA three‑month change −4 % (T3MM‑DIA) → softer large‑cap industrial trend can push flows into growth small‑caps; IJT rose 10 % vs. 9 % when positive.

QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust

Tracks: Nasdaq‑100 mega‑/large‑cap tech.

  • Economic Policy Uncertainty Index up 449 % YoY (T12MM‑USEPUINDXD) → policy noise typically drives a flight to quality tech; QQQ returned 215 % when spikes reached this level, versus 12 % otherwise.
  • Materials volatility at 24 % of norm (StdevT12MVol‑XLB) → calm commodity backdrop favors long‑duration growth; QQQ gained 22 % vs. 4 % when higher.
  • Fed‑Treasury liquidity gauge at 89 % of 52‑week peak (52WkR‑T6MFF) → ample liquidity supports tech multiples; QQQ advanced 14 % vs. 3 % otherwise.

DGT | SPDR Global Dow ETF

Tracks: Blue‑chip equities worldwide.

  • XLB RSI 116 % (RSIVol‑XLB) → materials overbought historically precedes global rotation; DGT returned 15 % vs. 2 % when muted.
  • XLV six‑month change −10 % (T6MM‑XLV) → healthcare cooling often signals catch‑up in cyclicals that DGT holds; DGT gained 9 % vs. 3 % otherwise.
  • T10YFF 12‑month change −111 % (T12MM‑T10YFF) → falling real yields boost dividend‑rich global names; DGT posted 7 % vs. −8 % when rising.

XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund

Tracks: U.S. large‑cap tech leaders.

  • 6‑month yield‑curve steepening +317 % (T6MM‑T10Y2Y) → growth optimism; XLK returned 78 % vs. 8 % when flatter.
  • XLV six‑month change −10 % (T6MM‑XLV) → healthcare lag often coincides with tech outperformance; XLK gained 58 % vs. 8 % otherwise.
  • IJK volatility 115 % of norm (StdevT12MVol‑IJK) → elevated mid‑cap volatility historically precedes flows into mega‑cap tech; XLK rose 38 % vs. 5 % when calm.

IJK | iShares S&P Mid‑Cap 400 Growth ETF

Tracks: U.S. mid‑cap growth stocks.

  • MDY volatility just 27 % of norm (StdevT12M‑MDY) → compression phase often breaks upward; IJK returned 30 % vs. 2 % when higher.
  • XLB volatility 24 % of norm (StdevT12MVol‑XLB) → low materials volatility coincides with mid‑cap growth strength; IJK gained 16 % vs. 2 % otherwise.
  • Manufacturing payrolls flat (T3MM‑LNU01300000) → plateauing industrial jobs historically leads to mid‑cap catch‑up; IJK posted 15 % vs. −7 % when rising.

Taken together, compressed sector volatility, easing rate pressures, and improved global growth signals suggest these ETFs could remain constructive in the weeks ahead.

We look forward to delivering more zero‑hype, data‑first insights—and we hope your portfolio continues to TrendWell.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.